Up 3.6% YoY! Domestic Aluminum Wire and Cable Exports Steady with Growth in January-February [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 23, 2025 20:30

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According to data, China's aluminum wire and cable exports from January-February 2025 totaled 38,900 mt, up 3.6% YoY compared to the same period last year, providing market confidence at the beginning of the year. Currently, domestic power grid construction is expected to enter a concentrated delivery date, with corporate capacity likely shifting towards domestic demand, leading to an anticipated adjustment in the high level of China's aluminum wire and cable exports. However, in the medium and long-term, the acceleration of new energy infrastructure in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions will continue to drive demand for high-strength, high-conductivity aluminum wire and cable. SMM expects that China's aluminum wire and cable exports in 2025 will exceed 200,000 mt, up over 2.5% YoY.

March 23, 2025, according to customs data, China's total aluminum wire and cable exports in January-February 2025 reached 38,900 mt, up 3.6% YoY, achieving a steady start during the traditional domestic delivery off-season. On a monthly basis, January exports were 23,500 mt, down 11.7% MoM but still up 4.5% YoY; February, affected by the Chinese New Year, saw a further pullback to 15,300 mt, down 34.9% MoM, yet maintained a positive growth of 2.2% YoY. The data indicates that domestic companies effectively offset the impact of weaker domestic demand in the off-season by shifting their capacity focus to the export market. (The above data is based on codes 76141000 and 76149000)

In terms of product structure, steel-core aluminum stranded wire and similar products accounted for 25,100 mt (64.7%) of the total exports in January-February, while aluminum stranded wire and similar items made up 13,700 mt (35.3%). This ratio was basically flat compared to 2024, reflecting the rigid demand for high-specification power cables in overseas markets.

Regarding export destinations, in January-February 2025, China exported aluminum wire and cable to 108 countries, maintaining a broad geographical distribution. Notably, the share of exports to Ghana sharply decreased. In 2024, exports to Ghana amounted to 79,400 mt, accounting for 8% of the total and ranking first. However, in January-February 2025, the volume dropped to 1,800 mt, representing only 4.71%, indicating a weakening trend in orders.

By registration location, concentration has become more pronounced. Jiangsu Province led with 14,600 mt (37.7%), followed by Henan Province with 7,300 mt (19%). It is worth noting that Xinjiang's exports surged to 5,800 mt (15%), placing it third.

SMM Brief Comment: According to the data, China's aluminum wire and cable exports in January-February 2025 totaled 38,900 mt, up 3.6% YoY, providing market confidence at the beginning of the year. As domestic power grid construction is expected to enter a concentrated delivery period, company capacities may gradually shift towards domestic demand, leading to a high-level adjustment in subsequent exports. However, in the medium and long-term, the acceleration of new energy infrastructure in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions will continue to drive demand for high-strength, high-conductivity aluminum wire and cable. SMM expects China's aluminum wire and cable exports in 2025 to exceed 200,000 mt, with a YoY increase of over 2.5%.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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