Up 3.6% YoY! Domestic Aluminum Wire and Cable Exports Steady with Growth in January-February [SMM Analysis]

March 23, 2025, according to customs data, China's total aluminum wire and cable exports in January-February 2025 reached 38,900 mt, up 3.6% YoY, achieving a steady start during the traditional domestic delivery off-season. On a monthly basis, January exports were 23,500 mt, down 11.7% MoM but still up 4.5% YoY; February, affected by the Chinese New Year, saw a further pullback to 15,300 mt, down 34.9% MoM, yet maintained a positive growth of 2.2% YoY. The data indicates that domestic companies effectively offset the impact of weaker domestic demand in the off-season by shifting their capacity focus to the export market. (The above data is based on codes 76141000 and 76149000) In terms of product structure, steel-core aluminum stranded wire and similar products accounted for 25,100 mt (64.7%) of the total exports in January-February, while aluminum stranded wire and similar items made up 13,700 mt (35.3%). This ratio was basically flat compared to 2024, reflecting the rigid demand for high-specification power cables in overseas markets. Regarding export destinations, in January-February 2025, China exported aluminum wire and cable to 108 countries, maintaining a broad geographical distribution. Notably, the share of exports to Ghana sharply decreased. In 2024, exports to Ghana amounted to 79,400 mt, accounting for 8% of the total and ranking first. However, in January-February 2025, the volume dropped to 1,800 mt, representing only 4.71%, indicating a weakening trend in orders. By registration location, concentration has become more pronounced. Jiangsu Province led with 14,600 mt (37.7%), followed by Henan Province with 7,300 mt (19%). It is worth noting that Xinjiang's exports surged to 5,800 mt (15%), placing it third. SMM Brief Comment: According to the data, China's aluminum wire and cable exports in January-February 2025 totaled 38,900 mt, up 3.6% YoY, providing market confidence at the beginning of the year. As domestic power grid construction is expected to enter a concentrated delivery period, company capacities may gradually shift towards domestic demand, leading to a high-level adjustment in subsequent exports. However, in the medium and long-term, the acceleration of new energy infrastructure in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions will continue to drive demand for high-strength, high-conductivity aluminum wire and cable. SMM expects China's aluminum wire and cable exports in 2025 to exceed 200,000 mt, with a YoY increase of over 2.5%.